forward thinking in technology and learning

Self-driving cars:

Over 1 million people die in road traffic accidents each year in the world,  20 to 50 million people suffer non-fatal injuries.
According to this report , Since 2019, there have been almost 4000 autonomous vehicle accidents. with 10% of those resulting in injury, and 2% have resulted in a fatality. Far better than humans, in fact not even in the same ballpark. It’s safe to say (hee hee) that humans are bad drivers.Yet, with self driving cars, we are unbelievably critical. One Tesla or Waymo accident occurs  and we are up in arms, screaming and yelling. I recall someone actually dying in a self-driving car accident and we went ballistic.  Humans drive impaired and distracted, self-driving cars do not. Approving self driving cars is a political rabbit hole, with some states in the US not even allowing them. Self-driving cars can optimize their driving route for mileage, safety, construction, whatever. Humans go by instinct, habit, and what we see. Humans have only 5 senses, some of which are not even relevant to driving. Good smell does not help me get to the supermarket. Self-driving cars have many more sensors than humans. I imagine the overall driving record for self-driving is tremendously better than that of humans. Why the double standard?

AI:

We talk about bias in data training and results. Yet, humans are incredibly biased, emotional, vindictive, jealous,and naive. We talk about incomplete training data, yet do humans ever make decisions without all pertinent knowledge? All the time. In fact, humans even choose to ignore some data in decisions-making. AI can’t do that. We talk about AI needing to be told what to do through prompting, and the wording of those prompts is vital. Don’t humans require the same direction? We talk about privacy in data, yet humans are guilty of violating trust frequently.  We talk about AI not being inclusive and accessible, but yet we have many human-created systems which are not. We talk about AI getting wrong answers. Humans get it wrong a lot. We talk about AI systems hallucinating. Humans daydream and get distracted all the time.

In some ways, I’ll even suggest AI is really not that different than humans after all.

Why are we more critical of technology and less tolerant of technology than of ourselves?

We call the most recent generation ‘digital natives’ because they have never known anything other than smartphones, smart watches, smart devices, and the internet. They have nothing to compare it to. They don’t shy away from technology and they are not freaked out about data privacy because they have never known anything other than a world of big data and social media.  They are not stuck looking back to the way things were, with antiquated laws and regulations for data and privacy. Their leaders ‘get’ technology and are comfortable pushing the envelope on using technology in creative ways. They are used to innovations rolling out in just months.

I kinda like being right just before that generation because we got to experience the world pre-PC, pre-smartphone, and pre-internet. We got to see innovation happening all around us. So as we glided into our digital age, we always viewed technology through the lens of not-having-it-first.  We could appreciate the innovations, maybe even moreso than the digital natives because we could compare before, during, and after. The laws and regulations we are used to are based on a pre-digital world, which means we are playing catch up most of the time. Our leaders are oftentimes ill-equipped to lead in the technology age because they don’t understand the capabilities and potential of technology. We see innovation, but that sometimes took years to roll out.

This next generation will be AI natives who have never known anything other than ChatGPT. They won’t be stuck looking back to the way things were, with antiquated laws and regulations for AI, data, and privacy. They are comfortable with technology and rapid innovations. The leaders will be able to manage laws and regulations designed for this rapid-paced world. This generation will be used to new innovations rolling out in weeks and even days.

The meaning of the good ‘ol days is dramatically different for each generation. Every generation has to manage its own technology, laws and regulations, capability for leaders to relate to the people and culture in order to guide wisely, and rate of acceptance of innovation.

Understanding and being in command of the technology that is in front of your face will always be one of the smartest ways to survive and thrive.

Absolutely.

The programs and applications that we use to access AI are written in code.
The algorithms that are used to train models for machine learning are written in code.
The data that are collected, and the data wrangling that happens before that data is used in training is all done using computer programs.

Humans wrote that code.

We are very much in the infancy of AI. Many people do not even really know what it is, and in some cases, even engineers don’t know exactly how it works.

If we want to improve the way AI learns through machine learning, then we need to continue to improve our current algorithms and develop new ones. If we want to increase the accuracy, reduce the bias, and eliminate hallucinations, then we have to continue to make new tools and improve existing tools for managing AI. If we want to improve and expand the ways in which we use AI, then Computer Science, code, and programming will be how we do that.

AI stands on the shoulders of Computer Science. Because we are still very much in the infancy of AI, it is even more vital that our younger generations are highly trained in the ways of Computer Science.

AI is just one type of modern application. There are unlimited types of programs that are programmed in code. AI is not the end-all of technology.

Think about how many other amazing breakthroughs and technologies we have seen over the years…. like the Internet, the automobile, TV, GPS, cell phones, airplanes, microwaves, printing press, and so on. And hasn’t every one of those technologies improved, gotten better, faster, safer, more efficient? We figured out how each one fits into society.

AI fits right into that list. It’s not over, in fact we are just beginning.

So, yes we still need Computer Science, code, programmers. We need people who understand what we have, at the technical level, so we can innovate, improve, build upon, iterate on, and make AI better, faster, safer, and more efficient.

Oh yeah, and we also have to figure out how AI fits into our society.

As promised, here is a summary and reflection on the ideas in (co-founder of DeepMind, co-founder of Inflection AI) Mustafa Suleyman’s new book, The Coming Wave.

What the author does well in the book is show where and how AI is currently being used throughout the world. We all assume AI is being used in creative and innovative ways, and Mustafa uses tons of examples to demonstrate that. But, where he truly distinguishes himself is, because of his own background, he can share with us with insider knowledge, accuracy and confidence not only where we have been and where we are, but where this can(and most likely will) go…hence “the coming wave.”

His main point throughout the book is we have to find ways to contain AI. Not block it, but responsibly and proactively find ways so that we are controlling the technology and not the other way around, or worse….AI controlling itself. The majority of people do not have any idea what AI is, much less how it works. This makes containment that much harder – but also that much more important. We cannot just hand over the reigns of our society to a computer robot, and cross our fingers.

The book lays out the groundwork for how society, over the years, has made efforts to guide, control, regulate, and contain other technologies. So, this idea of containment is not something that is a new, but AI is different because AI learns and gets better at a rate far beyond anything we have seen before. Some technologies take years, even decades, to develop and progress,so we can develop reasonable safeguards and sensibly incorporate the technology into society. Literally every week, we see improvements and breakthroughs in AI.

Think about automobiles and airlines. Each has safeguards, regulations, and controls to (somewhat) contain them. Even so, containment is not perfect, we still have issues, right? These technologies are not perfect, and our safeguards and containment attempts are not perfect.

Mustafa makes a great point that AI is different than technologies such as automobiles. An automobile is a single industry, while AI is more like electricity, in that it powers most other industries; so as AI improves and changes, it affects all areas of society, not just a single industry. That makes it even more important that we figure out how to contain AI.

What is being done now to address issues around AI? Unfortunately, society as a whole is not moving fast enough when it comes to AI. Blocking it, ignoring it, and not using it does not limit it’s progression. Regardless of how each country is handling their approach to AI, rest assured that there are other countries, people, groups, and organizations – both good and bad, who are pushing AI to the limits.

But, trying to contain a technology that is changing so rapidly is hard. As he points out, predicting at the forefront of discovery is hard, but that is where we are now with AI. It’s a leading edge, bleeding edge technology. What guardrails are already setup and what do we need? Are those once-helpful guardrails still helpful or are they already outdated? Are we noticing the right things? For example, neural networks were not taken seriously for a long time, so we paid them no attention. Suddenly, a breakthrough happens, and they are huge. Even CRISP gene editing was not created to do what we actually use it for now, it was designed for something completely different. GPUs made by Nvidia were created for gaming realism, yet now are central to AI. So, even knowing what to try to contain is hard.

Is there any country which has fully embraced AI? China fully embraces AI and has declared their aspirations to be the clear leader in the world by 2030. And because of their style of government, with the control, finances and intelligence, China can very likely make that happen.

Where is the United States in this? We barely have legislation, the people in leadership roles in government barely understand how a cell phone works, much less AI. I don’t know what’s worse, those same people making laws dealing with AI, or NOT making laws. The US government still has tape machines doing backups , while China has a quantum satellite. We are so occupied with middle school-level politics, juicy scandals, and the number of likes, that we are not noticing the coming wave. Meanwhile, China is polishing its surfboard.

What can we do right now? For starters, we must have AI literacy for people of all ages. We need to listen to people who understand AI, and ask them to help us figure out what questions we should be asking. Murphy’s Law tells us anything that can happen will happen (got that from Mathew Mcconaughey in Interstellar) that means both the good and bad. This AI wave is coming.

What does runaway technology look like when it’s not regulated, no safeguards, or containment? In the 1940s, when we tested the nuclear bomb, we had no idea what to expect. One of the possibilities was a small back hole formed and sucked our world into it. Yet, we still pushed the button!!?? And only after tens of thousands of people were killed after two bombs were dropped, did the world say, “this is not ok.” Now there are worldwide efforts to contain nuclear weapons. Not perfect by any means, but at least we are trying. Countries and people are talking.

Because of the incredible potential power of AI, Mustafa notes that we as as society are facing the ultimate challenge for Homo Sapiens and Homo technologicus. How do we approach this challenge?

None of us like government regulating our lives. There are many instances in history where that did not go well. But, Mustafa says we do need gov’t, but we can do this differently than in the past, but we have to do something. There are some ‘good’ example of government containment: We have stiff regulations worldwide in the automotive industry, yet millions of people die every year. This has become an acceptable consequence considering the benefit.

This is the norm.

What’s missing there? Common sense. Regulation, guardrails, rules, laws, and protocols do not work if they are not based on common sense. We need “…norms, structures of ownership, unwritten codes of compliance and honesty, arbitration procedures, contract enforcement, oversight mechanisms.” That must be part of society, more importantly —people must buy into that. It involves governments, public and private businesses, industry leaders, scientists, and people coming together.

How we define containment must also change. In the first part of the book, Mustafa defines containment as “…a foundation for controlling and gathering technology, spanning technical, cultural, and regulatory aspects.” But, towards the end, he redefines it, “…more as a set of guardrails, a way of keeping humanity in the drivers seat when a technology risks causing more harm than good.”

Woah. Is AI that big of a deal? Yes.

Technology is not just a way to store our selfies, buy something online, make reservations for a taxi, and play video games—-technology “represents access to the world’s accumulated culture and wisdom. It’s not a niche; it is a hyper-object dominating human existence.”

It’s not gonna be easy. Look at another global issue: climate change. It’s right in our face, yet we have not really done much as a global society. Yes, we have attempted some guardrails and regulations, but it is also political, profitable, and hard to enforce. There are still people who do not accept that it is even a thing. At least we are trying, but containment is far off.

So, a first step for us to begin containment for AI is simply to recognize and understand it. Get people together to have real discussions. Great news, this is already happening! The major players in AI worldwide already gather to discuss, share, challenge, debate, and learn from each other. Just having these cross culture relationships means we can talk to each other, which is vital. We saw in the movie Arrival, what happens when countries close off their communication with each other.

Yes, people disagree and have different norms; countries use different economic models, and have different approaches to the unknown. Regardless of those differences, the wave is coming, whether we want it to or not. At this point, all we can really do is buy ourselves some time. Time to understand, make attempts at guardrails and setting norms, time to develop defenses, time to build alliances, time to partner and harmonize to determine the right decisions.

In Jurassic Park, Malcolm says, “the scientists were so preoccupied with whether they could, they never stopped to consider whether they should.”

This book is thought-provoking, and highly readable for the layperson, but also technical enough so those in the trenches can find value. It’s the beginning of a discussion that MUST HAPPEN.

I suggest that the coming wave of AI is already here.

In regards to this Scientific American article. AI in education. Ah yes. The big conundrum. We forget students are still kids, still learning how the world works. Their brain is still developing. How does AI impact that? Yes, they are digital natives, but the author observed that “…students feel insignificant or unintelligent when faced with such technology.” A professor at Elon University wrote a thought-provoking article for Scientific American showing the human side of students using AI.
Instead of blocking AI or sticking his head in the sand, he brought it into the classroom and built an essay-writing assignment, where students were required to use AI. What he found was was unexpected: “…unfortunately, even the students who tried to use it responsibly (that is, without just cheating wholesale) did not really understand the technology.

A common and critical error is that many students mistakenly believe it is an infallible search engine. The results of his experimental assignment were eye-opening: Every one of the 63 essays contained confabulations and errors. Most students were surprised by this, and many were less impressed by the technology than they had been before doing the homework.” Two students commented about the experience, which shows us that students value their own learning far more than we give them credit for.
“…the most crucial element of schoolwork is not the course material or grade: The actual thinking processes a student undergoes while working through an assignment are more important than simply turning in the completed task. The details in the work seldom matter as much as this thinking. ” Another commented with an interesting observation -not at all in line with the messaging we hear and see, “…At its best, ChatGPT can be a versatile resource, introducing fresh, interactive ideas into the classroom for both teachers and students to enjoy.” Just as with any new digital tool, we will survive AI.
#Scientific American #artificialintelligence #education